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Distribution of Internal Rural-Urban Migration in Bangladesh: Application of Probability Models

Corresponding Author : Dr. Md. Zakir Hossain (mzhossain.bds@gmail.com)

Authors : Dr. Md. Zakir Hossain , Dr. Mohammad Mahmood Riad

Keywords : Internal migration, International migration, Modeling of migration, Probability models, Mean-zero frequency method, Maximum likelihood method

Abstract :

The study of migration through probability models is very crucial for an in-depth understanding of the pattern, the volume of migration, and the factors acting on it. The study is devoted to the application of probability models to describe the pattern of household-level migration in Bangladesh. The probability models have been tested using a nationwide representative dataset of Bangladesh generated by the project “Rural-urban Migration and its Implications for Food Security in Bangladesh” under the National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Programme (NFPCSP) of the Government of Bangladesh with the technical support of FAO and FPMU. The analysis revealed that the inflated logarithmic series distribution and the mixture of two displaced geometric distribution describe the distribution of adult male migrants and the total number of migrants respectively at the household level in Bangladesh. The suitable application of the designated probability models for both micro-level (Hossain’s Comilla survey 2000) data and nation-wide survey data (RUM-2012), directed the time-invariant applicability of these models on both micro-level samples to a sizeable national sample for Bangladesh. The findings indicated that the incidence of single-migrant households is on the rise over time and the internal rural-urban migration flow from the west region is higher than that from the east region of Bangladesh.

Published on June 28th, 2021 in Volume 31, Issue 1, Physical Sciences